Why is everybody so fixated on EVs?” asked John Eichberger, executive director of the Transportation Energy Institute (formerly the Fuels Institute) in his SOI Summit presentation.

Don’t worry. Eichberger had answers to his provocative question. After all, the Transportation Energy Institute is comprised of dozens of companies that help produce unbiased research reports on critical transportation issues.

“We are facing a situation where leaders around the world have decided we need to address climate change. It doesn’t matter what you believe about the issue—they believe it and so do the financial institutions” that oversee portfolios that cumulatively top $130 trillion, said Eichberger.

Even if electric vehicles are the answer to climate change, they can’t get here fast enough to address the problem, Eichberger said. With current sales trends and other challenges related to supply chain and production, among others, it’s going to take decades to replace the 1.5 billion internal combustion vehicles on the road today. And there are other issues that need to be explored—and addressed.

Eichberger began by correcting a major myth: Decarbonization to address climate change does not equal electrification. After all, EVs are not zero-emission vehicles. They require energy to recharge batteries.

Half of all vehicles sold today will be on the road 15 years from now.

“There’s no such thing as a zero-emission vehicle,” Eichberger said. “That said, EVs will play a very important role in our transportation future,” he added.

Eichberger shared a litany of projections from disparate organizations not named the Transportation Energy Institute, some based on facts, some based on hopes at best, looking at what share of the new car market EVs will have in the year 2030. They vary from 11% (U.S. Energy Information Administration) to 50% or more (McKenzie and Boston Consulting Group).

With such wildly disparate projections, how can anyone plan for the future, asked Eichberger. He then dove into the math. Currently, the United States is on track to sell one million new EVs this year, an impressive feat and a sign of the continued growth of the EV market.

Impressive, yes. But nowhere near what is needed to satisfy the demands tied to many bans and pledges, both in the United States and throughout the European Union.

Increasing demand for EVs beyond the core believers—the 7% of new car buyers who currently purchase EVs—also will take some work. Besides Eichberger, speaker after speaker at the SOI Summit talked about consumer concerns about the economy and a possible recession in 2023. Consumers are concerned about their finances—and EVs are expensive. The average new car retails for $48,000, and the average new EV retails for nearly $60,000, not much less than the average U.S. household income of $71,000.

EV drivers tend to visit c-stores that have chargers, whether or not they use the chargers, to support the infrastructure.

Another challenge to replacing the fleet of 300 million internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is that drivers are holding onto their vehicles longer. Half of all vehicles sold today will be on the road 15 years from now, and a sizable percentage will be on the road 25 years from now.

Current trends and other realities show that EVs shouldn’t be considered the only solution to climate change. “We need multiple solutions,” Eichberger said.

However, fixating on EVs and mandates that rapidly phase out new ICE vehicle sales also cuts off other possible solutions. It tells the auto industry to move away from finding new ways to reduce the carbon intensity of liquid fuels in vehicles that will be in demand for decades longer.

“You need to enable innovation,” Eichberger said.

What should retailers do? Eichberger advised them to start thinking about the questions they need to answer about their operations as they consider EVs.

• Who installs the chargers? Should you install chargers by yourself, which can be expensive? Or do you contract with a third party to install them, but lose the direct relationship with your customer?
• How much should I allocate to spend? National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) funding is available, but it’s only part of the expenses associated with charging. Operational expenses also need to be factored into any decision.
• When do I install chargers? NEVI requires a minimum of 600 kW, which can lead to massive demand charges. Do you have the consistent traffic flow to make money on charging?
• Where am I located? Right now, 82% of all EVs in operation are concentrated in 15 states. This localization of demand is likely to continue for the next few years, with the highest demand on the East and West Coasts.

“If you get in too soon, you will lose money,” said Eichberger.

What can retailers do to determine if their site is a good location for charging? Eichberger advised retailers to study their market. Look at U.S. Census data and other research to examine living patterns. Do a lot of families have homes with garages—or are they in apartments or other dwellings that are potentially less conducive to charging at home? Also talk to local auto dealers and find out what they are selling and when they expect to receive EVs to sell.

“Pay attention to your local market. That’s the best advice I can give,” Eichberger said.

Start asking questions. And when you find someone who gives good answers, ask more questions.

For retailers who already have chargers or soon will, Eichberger said that consumer education is critical. Many drivers may not know what influences their rate of recharge. While the flow rate of electricity is dictated by the chargers themselves, the speed at which a vehicle can accept that electricity is dictated by the vehicle design, the temperature of the battery and the state of charge of that battery. Charging rates slow down considerably at about 80% to protect car batteries. Getting that last 20% to get to 100% charged can be a lengthy experience.

“Get it to 80% and go,” advised Eichberger.

There are other benefits of having chargers. Eichberger said that EV drivers tend to visit c-stores that have chargers, whether or not they use the chargers, to support the infrastructure in place for charging.

The transition to a robust EV future will take time. “Don’t pull out your fuel dispensers. That would be very, very risky,” he said.

Instead, start asking questions. And when you find someone who gives good answers, ask more questions.

Also, there are plenty of resources available. The Transportation Energy Institute has several online at transportationenergy.org, including “Installing and Operating Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure.”

“It’s a tremendous resource. And, like with all Transportation Energy Institute resources, it’s free.”

“Whether or not you think that EV charging is important, some of your customers do, your bankers do and so do politicians,” concluded Eichberger.