Midterm Prime Time

In a redistricting year, Republicans look to retake the House, and Democrats fight to keep the Senate.

Midterm Prime Time

October 2022   minute read

By: Jim Ellis

Primary season has all but concluded, and that means we are entering the heart of the 2022 political season. It is during this period when the most money will be spent on message delivery. Election prime time is shorter than ever. Before, it consumed the period between Labor Day and Election Day, but early voting procedures in most states have now created an “election month,” and many county clerks and election officials will begin accepting either mailed or in-person ballots during the second half of October.

The Senate races are taking full shape with all but one key state, New Hampshire, now having their general election nominees chosen. The New Hampshire primary, always one of the latest in the country, was scheduled for September 13. At press time, it appeared set to produce a Republican nominee who should be relatively well positioned to win the general election in what is one of the country’s most defined swing states.

The 2022 Senate map features 34 regular elections and one special election in Oklahoma held to select a replacement to serve the balance of resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) final term. Republicans must defend seven more seats than Democrats; and, when looking at the 14 Democratic defense seats, the party is really only vulnerable in four of those: Arizona (Sen. Mark Kelly), Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnock), Nevada (Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto), and the aforementioned New Hampshire (Sen. Maggie Hassan).

Republicans also must defend six open seats as part of their 2022 task, three of which are highly competitive. The Pennsylvania seat (Democrat John Fetterman vs. Republican Mehmet Oz) is the state at this point in the election cycle looking most likely to flip. Fetterman, the Keystone State Lt. Governor who suffered a serious stroke right before the May primary election, has opened consistent leads over Dr. Oz, and it will be a substantial feat at this point for the Republicans to turn the trajectory of this race.

Nevada and New Hampshire are key to any Republican hopes of claiming a small Senate majority."

RECORD PRIMARY TURNOUT

The key point in the Pennsylvania Republicans’ favor is the primary turnout, which is an indication of political enthusiasm and could be a precursor for the general election. Both parties increased substantially in 2022 primary turnout when compared with the last midterm election in 2018, but Republicans almost doubled their turnout.

A total of 92% more people voted in this year’s Republican primary than four years ago. In fact, this number represents even more people than those voting in the 2020 Pennsylvania presidential primary, which simply doesn’t happen. Therefore, the general election turnout model could develop in the Republicans’ favor.

Another off-the-charts primary turnout state was Georgia. In fact, the Republican participation percentage in this state—110% higher in comparison to the 2018 midterm election—even eclipsed the Pennsylvania number.

Though Sen. Warnock (D) has a large lead in financial resources over Republican Herschel Walker, the turnout model and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) doing very well against Democrat Stacey Abrams could help pull the Senate race over the finish line. Though Sen. Warnock appears to be running the better campaign, he has yet to pull away from Walker in polling. Ten surveys were publicly released in July and early August, seven of which Sen. Warnock led, but in only two was the preference margin beyond four points.

Arizona Sen. Kelly (D) looks to be opening a significant lead over Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters, but he also held similar margins over then-Sen. Martha McSally (R) in the 2020 special election yet only scored a two-point win.

Nevada and New Hampshire are key to any Republican hopes of claiming a small Senate majority. Both swing states are close in polling, and they become must wins for the GOP should Dr. Oz lose the Republican seat in Pennsylvania.

REPUBLICANS EYE THE HOUSE

The House looks much better for Republicans, since the GOP still remains the clear favorite to claim a new majority in the November election. Early leadership predictions of Republicans winning 40-50 seats in the House now seem too optimistic, especially when understanding that this is a redistricting year, which leads to a political stabilization of congressional districts.

Though the party controlling the White House consistently loses seats in the first midterm election of a new president’s tenure, a redistricting year tends to mitigate the number of lost seats. The 2022 midterm election represents only the fourth time since 1930 that the U.S. has seen a president’s first midterm election in a redistricting year.

At this point in the election cycle, we’ve already seen 14 House incumbents lose renomination—eight Republicans and six Democrats. Seven members have lost through redistricting pairings or unfavorable maps (five Democrats and two Republicans), four Republicans who voted for former President Trump’s impeachment have fallen, and two Republicans and a Democrat were defeated because of ideological or ethical reasons.

After the large number of special elections during this election cycle, Republicans are just a handful of seats from already capturing the majority. A net gain in the mid-20s would award them a majority in the low-to-mid 230s, which is well beyond the minimum 218 to wrest control away from the Democrats.

Republicans look to Florida as the state where they can reap the largest gains. The redistricting map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), himself a former House member, guided through the legislature could yield four Republican seats. The strongest Democratic post-redistricting state is Illinois, where the new congressional map could allow the party candidates to net three seats.

Should the Democrats hold and increase their Senate majority, Republicans winning the House becomes all the more important to give them the ability to stifle some of the president’s agenda.

A total of 36 governors’ races are on the ballot, 26 of which appear to offer some level of competition."

GOVERNOR RACES

A total of 36 governors’ races are on the ballot, 26 of which appear to offer some level of competition. Eight of the offices are open in 2022, mostly due to term limits taking effect. The only open seat not dictated by a term limit is in Massachusetts, where Gov. Charlie Baker (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Most of the general election competition lies in the West, as gubernatorial races in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon are all in toss-up mode. The Midwest features tight gubernatorial contests in Kansas and Wisconsin, and there is major competition in Michigan and Ohio, and in the Mid-Atlantic, possibly Pennsylvania. Texas and Georgia are the two southern states worth watching, as is Gov. DeSantis’ re-election run in the Sunshine State.

Two open seats are primed to flip from Republican to Democrat, Maryland and Massachusetts, while the GOP could score conversion gains in several of the aforementioned states, particularly in the West and Midwest.

Political prime time will change the outcome of some of these projected races, and we will again see a large number of close results. With so many states now allowing ballots to be received and counted in the post-election period, the total universe of final results may not be complete until Thanksgiving.

Jim Ellis

Jim Ellis

Jim Ellis is a 37-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels who analyzes election data for major corporations, associations and legislative advocacy firms. He is president of Ellis Insight LLC. He can be reached at [email protected].

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