The oil markets started 2025 with a lot of moving parts—a new administration that’s the opposite of the previous one, tariffs, world issues in flux (as always) and OPEC+ playing its usual games in the market. Meanwhile, EVs are ramping up adoption and gaining market share faster than chargers are being installed, spurring retailers to consider if now is the right time to capitalize on the growing demand—or if not now, when.
With the fuel market experiencing pressure from all sides that could impact marketplace dynamics, two NACS SOI Summit sessions investigated how retailers can navigate pricing, demand and implementation of both traditional fuel and electric vehicle chargers.
Looking at Traditional Fuels
The “Fuels Deep Dive” session, presented by Denton Cinquegrana, the chief oil analyst, OPIS, lived up to its title. Cinquegrana has been with OPIS since 2001 and is responsible for the day-to-day operations of OPIS’ news and analysis division, providing big-picture views on topics from supply and demand trends to anticipating price moves in the future and covering spot and retail markets in North America.
I’ve argued in the past that 30 cents was the new 20 cents. I was wrong. It’s probably 40 cents is the new 20 cents.”
—Denton Cinquegrana
Dropping Oil Prices
April got underway with OPEC boosting its monthly production from 130-140,000 barrels per day to over 400,000 barrels per day. That should cause oil prices to drop, but at the expense of domestic fracking, which requires higher oil prices for profitable production.
“One of [Trump’s] big talking points is ‘drill baby drill’” Cinquegrana said. “Well, we’re kind of doing that, but with prices from around $60 a barrel from WTI and $63.50 or so for Brent, we may not for much longer. You might start to hear about some shut-ins, especially if we stay down in the in the low $60s or even into the $50s.”
Goldman Sachs said it could see WTI in the $40s. Cinquegrana found that disturbing—it’s not because of overproduction, but because demand is not there due to recessionary pressures.
Algorithmic Trading
While there has been the usual volatility, the wild speculative swings appear to have stabilized. Cinquegrana noted the markets have been relatively “trendless” and technology is a driver.
“Most of the trading today is algorithmic based,” he said. “And that’s why oil has been kind of trendless over the last couple of years. For example, I saw a statistic from JP Morgan saying that about 90% of the stock market trading that happens today is all machine based. So, when you’re on your E-Trade account or your Fidelity account, you’re trading against the machine. Good luck.”
Most of the trading today is algorithmic based, and that’s why oil has been kind of trendless over the last couple of years.”
—Denton Cinquegrana
Tariffs and Their Impact on Energy Markets
The Trump Administration’s tariffs have certainly been controversial. As Cinquegrana noted, some economists feel it’s a one-time adjustment while others are arguing it’s going to cause a significant spike in inflation or cause the Federal Reserve to not do anything with interest rates. “I think that might be part of Trump’s end game to get interest rates to drop and reduce borrowing costs and transfers in the housing market. Is it a negotiating tactic? It seems like it is. But who knows,” he said.
Cinquegrana did acknowledge that Trump has been “flexible” with North American energy partners, with Mexican and Canadian energy off the table as far as tariffs are concerned. He noted that if the tariffs impacted those energy partners in a serious way the results could be negative for the U.S. energy infrastructure. For example, Canadian sour crude is linked to refineries in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Rockies (with some on the West Coast). Shifting those exports to other buyers would seriously impact U.S. refining.
Margins and Volume
One new reality has been a return to strong retail gasoline margins—something that had been lacking for nearly two decades. He noted the U.S. margin for gasoline—gross rack to retail—was almost 40 cents in 2024, up a little bit from 2023.
“I’ve argued in the past that 30 cents was the new 20 cents,” Cinquegrana said. “I was wrong. It’s probably 40 cents is the new 20 cents.”
He also discussed the significant drop in volume from 2019 and offered his insight on what was driving that. “I think there are several things,” he said. “It’s efficiency. Vehicles are so much more efficient than what we drove 10-15 years ago. Also, there’s a little bit of electric vehicle penetration, more so in places like California than, say, Mississippi.”
He noted that telecommuting was still playing a role in demand. Although some companies are pushing to be back in the office five days a week, he believes the hybrid work model is likely here to stay.
“Whether you’re in the office for two or three dayss a week, I think that impacts gasoline demand quite a bit,” Cinquegrana said. “I think the West Coast is where you’ve seen the most gasoline demand destruction over the last four or five years.”
The State of Charging
Electric vehicles have been pushed as not only a viable transportation carbon reduction solution but as the strongly preferred solution under the Biden Administration and by many other governments around the world. While a change in administration has shifted the current focus significantly, the solution has matured and is here to stay, especially in specific markets.
The Transportation Energy Institute’s Charging Analytics Program (CAP) has evaluated millions of charging sessions each month to help retailers better understand EV opportunities. The CAP is a tool that NACS and TEI built to look at charging sessions, chargers and EV deployment throughout the United States to start understanding the charging culture and its dynamics in as nuanced detail as possible.
You might pay a price down the road for that lower-cost charger if the demand exceeds its capabilities during the peak hours.”
—Karl Doenges
“The whole purpose is to maximize ROI for our industry,” Karl Doenges, executive director of the CAP, said during his presentation. “We’re really concerned with two things. Utilization rates—the volume of kilowatts that are flowing through a charger—and how many sessions and how much time someone is spending at the charger. And that gets to how much money you can make on the actual kilowatt margin and how many opportunities you get to convert someone into the store and maximize the basket of goods.”
He also noted that TEI is supporting a voluntary carbon credit program where retailers can monetize the carbon reduction benefits from electrons that are flowing through the charger. The same carbon credit benefits apply to biofuels—everything from E10 to E85. If retailers are generating RINS, then you are generating voluntary carbon credits retailers can monetize.
CAP data analyzes eight million charging sessions at 35,000 sites in the United States. These sites encompass the common retail and hospitality verticals, including convenience stores. This includes not just convenience stores with chargers on site, but those that are within 100 yards of an EV charger.
“We’re representing 63% of all the chargers out there, and it’s growing,” Doenges said. “We’re starting to incorporate data in Canada, and we’re looking at every single plug type that exists. So, for the first time we’re going to have a very comprehensive data set.”
Location, Location, Location
The news has suggested that EV sales are crashing. And, while sales have not been as robust as had been predicted in various circles, it’s not a calamity by any metric.
“We’ve had good growth, but it softened in the first quarter of the year,” Doenges said. “But contrary to the headlines, it’s still growing. On the flip side, 90% [of vehicles] are internal combustion engines or hybrids.”
Geographic adoption patterns play strongly in retail charging opportunities. He noted California, Texas, Florida and New York are the powerhouse states for adoption, followed by Georgia and Arizona. He anticipates the market will see much greater concentration in about 16 states. But even in other locations, there will be pockets where retailers are going to have to develop an EV strategy.
“When you zoom out and you look at a state or region, the penetration really isn’t that much, even in some of the more progressive states,” Doenges said. “But if you zoom in, it’s concentrated in tighter locations. You must pay attention, because it can still affect you. Everything is hyperlocal.”
Charger Utilization
There’s a seasonal and daypart impact on charging. Utilization goes up in the wintertime due to the dynamics of electric vehicles and efficiency losses in colder weather. From a weekly perspective, weekends rule—whether it’s a convenience store or any other kind of business. The most popular charging time is 11 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Which Locations Are the Most Efficient With Fast Charging?
“When you look at convenience stores near highway ramps, 71% of all DFCF fast chargers are located within one mile of a highway ramp, and 73% of convenience store charging was within one mile of a highway ramp,” said Doenges. “Interstates have been seen as an obvious market opportunity and this might confirm that. But could that be skewed because of state grants or incentives supporting those locations?”
Expanding the analysis, the convenience store subset that’s closer to the highway has 140 sessions per month compared to 134 for those further away.
“It’s a difference, but it’s not an enormous difference, which starts to support the thesis that the free market is allocating the chargers in the right areas, and they’re getting that sweet spot because they’re getting similar utilization rates with a similar session count,” Doenges said. “The question is, is this going to change as the industry scales and the demography of EV drivers changes?”
Impact of Charger Power Levels
Is there such a thing as a charger that’s too underpowered? There is a significant price difference between a relatively cheap but slow 50–100 kW charger compared to 100-200 kW or the fast but more capital expensive 300 kW and above option.
“If it’s underpowered, you’re flowing less electrons, which means less ability to get electron margins and carbon credits,” Doenges said. “It also means less ability to have that high turnover in session count [which creates more opportunities for in-store sales]. You might pay a price down the road for that lower-cost charger if the demand exceeds its capabilities during the peak hours.”