Heading into 2026, should fuel retailers be thinking more about opportunities or threats? Why?
Denton Cinquegrana: Both—but right now it feels like the opportunities outweigh the threats. There will be opportunities for retailers to grow station counts as others look to exit the business. There is no question gallons are shrinking. Because the demand pie is only so big, expanding in size can guarantee that your piece of the pie does not shrink.
There are other opportunities, whether expanding fuel offerings, E15 for example, or putting in charging should incentives and grants make it worthwhile.
Market volatility presents both threats and opportunities. For example, there were just 62.15 cents that separated the high and low gasoline futures trades in 2025 (through December 5). Between 2014 and 2024, the average difference between high and low was $1.22 per gallon.
However, there is plenty of volatility throughout the day, and that could present opportunities for margin expansion if you are positioned in the market correctly.
John Eichberger: 2026 will likely be a different experience. For several years, margins have been strong and that has helped support the business. However, over the past few months more attention has been directed at the affordability of everyday essentials. Consumers have always been sensitive to gas prices, and although prices are nowhere near their peak for the year, they still represent a target for politicians seeking to defend their constituents against the high cost of living. This could put pressure on retailers to rethink their pricing strategies, which could begin to erode margins. I also don’t rule out high-profile investigations launched by the federal government to “expose” bad actors within industry and to ensure that consumer blame is directed at any stakeholders other than the government.
On another topic, the unrealistic push to transition the market to electric vehicles by 2032 has been put on the back burner. While I don’t believe the counterhype that electric vehicles are in full retreat, it is clear that automobile manufacturers have been given some breathing room to reevaluate their go-to-market strategy. For retailers, the relaxation of market expectations provides additional time to really develop a plan for serving EV drivers with charging services and in-store amenities that appeal to these drivers. It also gives them additional time to confer with their utility service providers and charge point operators to find technical solutions for charging that carry the greatest opportunity for profitability.
What are the big national or geopolitical issues that could affect the industry in 2026?
Cinquegrana: From a geopolitical perspective, Russia-Ukraine without any resolution or just a continuation of current standing could continue to create market volatility. The situation in Venezuela also should be watched closely. [Editor’s note: This interview was conducted before the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela.] The Middle East, for the time being, seems to be calm, but that could change at a moment’s notice.
Domestically, there is the potential for year-round E15, though that may ultimately end up being a 2027 thing. Midterm elections, interest rates, tariffs (though not necessarily fuel related) are all things to keep an eye on in 2026.
Eichberger: At the end of 2025, oil prices were hovering around $60 per barrel, which is not enough to encourage additional production and could be seen as a signal that there is too much oil in the market. Globally, this could lead to different decisions from major producers who may try to encourage the market to trend towards higher prices. Of course, there also is the continued threat of geopolitical conflict, which typically affects oil prices.
Both of these conditions could result in higher prices but are stood up against the very real threat of an economic slowdown. How this all plays out is impossible to predict, but a consistent push and pull on the oil markets will likely continue. As go oil prices, so too go retail prices, with increasing prices pinching margins and decreasing prices supporting margins. Retailers need to remain astute to both national political conditions and consumer sentiment as well as commodity prices that are affected by events throughout the world.
One thing that has definitely changed is the global push to ‘address climate change at any cost.’ Leaders throughout the world seem to be recalibrating their approach to balance their environmental objectives with the central issues of affordability and accessibility to energy. Ensuring that people can afford and have access to enough energy for their daily lives seems to be taking a higher priority among leaders, which allows more time to thoughtfully consider how to best approach reducing emissions in ways that don’t impose unsustainable burdens on populations.
Okay, wave your magic wand. What do you want consumers to better understand about fueling?
Cinquegrana: I do think the consumer has become way more knowledgeable regarding retail gasoline despite the visceral relationship drivers have with gas prices. They now know the difference between winter- and summer-grade gasoline—that is a big one. I do see less of “they’re gouging us” when the price goes up, but there are still those who think that.
I think one thing we can talk more about—and I am always talking about it—is how efficient refineries are. Nothing goes to waste, and this is all done at very economical levels. Going back to your phrase “magic wand”… it’s not as simple as crude oil goes in, and gasoline comes out.
Eichberger: Consumers don’t want to pay too much for fuel, but they also want the fuel to be clean. I do believe that most consumers support lower emissions from the transportation sector, but they just don’t want to have to pay for it.
The liquid fuel being sold today is being produced with technologies that have reduced emissions, and most of it is being blended with renewable fuels that also have consistently become better for the environment. When this is combined with the improvement in emissions of vehicles and the increase in hybrid electric vehicles, the overall impact on transportation-related emissions is significant. Consumers should feel comfortable knowing that their new liquid-fueled combustion vehicles are much cleaner on a tailpipe- and lifecycle-basis than the ones they are replacing.
Last question: Do you have a bold prediction for what will be significantly different a year from now?
Cinquegrana: I think the bold prediction is that 2026 is going to look a lot like 2025. It is hard to find anyone that is bullish on oil right now, with predictions of prices averaging in the $50s for Brent and low $50s for West Texas Intermediate. That would obviously be good for the consumer in the form of lower gasoline prices. However, I think OPEC will ultimately defend $60 oil, which is not different from where it is now.
This year, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria will finally be ready for primetime and alter product flows in the Atlantic Basin. This added refining capacity will ultimately force a refinery—whether in Europe or the United States—to announce a closure.
Eichberger: In less than a year, the midterm elections will be over and the composition of the next Congress will be known. Leading up to that point, I suspect the arguments about energy policy and consumer affordability will be akin to political blood sport in which everyone will suffer to some degree. The political dynamics in Washington will provide a clear indication of how messy the following two years might be.
That said, convenience and fuel retailers typically outperform other channels during recessionary times, and it seems that is the direction the U.S. is currently heading. We know that even when the economy struggles, consumers still have to get around and they need fuel to do that. I suspect 2026 could be a challenging year, but from challenge comes opportunities, and this industry is one of the nimblest.
Denton Cinquegrana, Chief Oil Analyst, OPIS
John Eichberger Executive Director, Transportation Energy Institute